Washington, D.C. – More severe hunger and malnutrition will occur in Gaza if new restrictions on the entry of food and humanitarian aid continue, according to the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET).

In its latest analysis, FEWS NET reported that no humanitarian aid or commercial food supplies entered northern Gaza in early October amid the Israeli Defense Force’s large-scale ground invasion and the closure of northern border crossings. Commercial food supplies have also been severely restricted in the south.

Across Gaza, operational constraints are limiting the provision of life-saving assistance and services.

If humanitarian and commercial supplies remain heavily restricted or suspended throughout October, FEWS NET would likely change its Risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) statement to a projection of Famine (IPC Phase 5).

“The situation in Gaza remains dire, and lives continue to be lost from hunger-related causes,” FEWS NET Program Director Kiersten Johnson said. “Continued restrictions on humanitarian aid and commercial supplies will result in more severe hunger and increasing hunger-related mortality across Gaza in the coming months. We as a community need to understand that by the time data become available to classify Famine, irreversible and tragic impacts on people’s lives will have already occurred.”

Malnutrition and hunger-related deaths are lagging indicators, meaning that the impacts of the current limitations on people’s access to food – like restricting the entry of humanitarian food trucks into Gaza or active conflict that makes it unsafe to deliver aid – will take time to be reflected in widespread child malnutrition and hunger-related deaths that characterize Famine (IPC Phase 5).

“People in Gaza are already experiencing an extreme hunger crisis, and the interaction of starvation and disease caused by the ongoing war is causing irreversible physiological impacts on children’s growth and development and will likely result in high levels of hunger-related death, especially among children, without urgent action now,” Johnson said. “In its last report, FEWS NET warned of a Risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) if certain events materialize. As of early October, those events have started to occur. A substantial and immediate scale-up of humanitarian assistance is needed to prevent further suffering and death in Gaza.”