Washington, D.C. – A Famine (IPC Phase 5) scenario is unfolding amid the near-total blockade of food supplies into North Gaza governorate, according to the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET).

In a new Gaza Strip Food Security Alert, FEWS NET reported that the severity of acute food insecurity in North Gaza governorate has sharply worsened since early October 2024 when the Israeli Defense Forces launched a large-scale military operation that severely restricted humanitarian and commercial food supply flows.

As of early November, an estimated 75,000-95,000 people in North Gaza have been isolated from food supplies and nutrition services for at least 40 days, and the availability of health services is increasingly dire.

If food supply flows do not dramatically increase, FEWS NET analysts warn that Famine (IPC Phase 5) will become the most likely outcome in North Gaza governorate.

“FEWS NET experts warned in August that northern Gaza would face Famine if food and nutrition assistance were significantly disrupted or halted for an extended period of time,” FEWS NET Decision Support Advisor Lark Walters said. “That situation is now materializing in North Gaza. Although data collection efforts are no longer feasible, we know that prolonged food deprivation leads to escalating malnourishment, and it is highly likely that ongoing hunger-related mortality is trending upwards towards at least 2 deaths per 10,000 people per day.”

In the rest of Gaza, a risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) remains very credible given new restrictions on commercial food supply flows and persisting, extreme challenges affecting the delivery of humanitarian assistance.

FEWS NET will collaborate with the Integrated Phase Classification (IPC) partnership and Famine Review Committee (FRC) on the assessment of Famine (IPC Phase 5) in the coming weeks, although it should be stressed that decision-makers should not await this classification to take action.

“Human suffering in Gaza is already happening at an extreme level,” Walters said. “FEWS NET is calling for immediate action to facilitate large-scale, sustained delivery of food and nutrition assistance to save lives.”